Cockroach theory
/What is Cockroach Theory?
The cockroach theory states that unexpected negative news from a business is probably an indicator that there is more negative news that has not yet been revealed. The name is derived from the concept that the visible presence of one cockroach likely indicates the presence of many more that have not yet been found.
When a business reveals bad financial or operational news, management has a tendency to downplay the extent of the issue, and so tends to present the most optimistic view of the situation. A canny investor will assume that more bad news will dribble out over time, causing a continuing drop in the price of the reporting entity's shares, and so will sell all holdings in the business right away.
The cockroach theory can be extrapolated to an entire industry. For example, if one company reports a problem, one can reasonably expect that the underlying cause may be impacting the entire industry to some degree, so additional problems may be reported elsewhere over a period of time. Thus, a negative report by one company can trigger a general selloff across an entire industry. When a problem is eventually reported industry-wide, this may also trigger additional government regulation, which tends to impose more costs and therefore results in a further decline in profits.
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Example of the Cockroach Theory
An insider reports to the financial press that Brickworks Corporation has been selling sub-standard bricks to its clients, who are mostly contractors who build large-scale property developments. Suspecting that this might be an application of the cockroach theory, investors immediately sell off their holdings in four competitors of Brickworks. Following several investigations, it is proven that the entire industry has been selling sub-standard bricks in order to boost their profits.
How to Offset the Cockroach Theory
Management can minimize the effects of the cockroach theory by imposing a strong set of controls on an organization. Doing so reduces the risk of internal issues causing problems, though it does not head off problems arising from outside the organization. Another possibility is to conduct a thorough housecleaning as soon as an issue is found, so that all possible earnings problems can be addressed in a single news release.